Archive for November, 2012
Post-election Wrap Up: Pundit Scorecard
Posted by eweislogel in Continuing Crisis, Res Publica on November 13, 2012
Pundits scorecard: Compare here (a useful roundup of pundit predictions) with the actual results here.
Only one pundit hit the margin of victory (2.74%) within .5%. Only three pundits hit the electoral college votes for the winner exactly (332). Some pundits had Obama winning with as little as 271 electoral college votes; some had Romney winning with as many as 330 electoral college votes.
If you are familiar with the list of pundits (I am not familiar with all of them), you will see that the people of the right “predicted” that Romney would win and the people of the left “predicted” that Obama would win. I, myself, do not see anyone associated with one side predicting a win by the other. This leads me to believe that these “predictions” are simply wishful thinking, with one side getting its wish.
One pollster got the Obama electoral college votes exactly right. All pollsters listed here predicted an Obama victory.
If all the votes cast for third party and “other” candidates (1.59% of all votes cast) had been cast for Romney (very unlikely), he still would not have won.